Nigeria’s leading telecom operators, MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa, are set to post significant profit rebounds in 2025, driven by an accelerating shift from voice services to data. With data revenue now making up nearly half of their total income, both telcos are doubling down on internet services to power future growth and profitability.
What was once a supplementary service has now become the cornerstone of their business models—marking a structural transformation in Nigeria’s telecom industry.
MTN Nigeria: Data Fuels Rebound After Record Loss
After posting a massive ₦440 billion loss in 2024 due to forex-related shocks, MTN Nigeria has turned a major corner in 2025. The company reported ₦133.6 billion profit after tax in Q1 2025, a sharp reversal largely powered by booming data revenue.
In 2024, MTN generated ₦1.59 trillion in data revenue—up 49% year-on-year, and accounting for 47% of total revenue. This momentum continued into Q1 2025, with ₦528.98 billion in data income, making up 50% of the quarter’s total revenue.
Key Growth Metrics:
- Active data users rose 7% to 47.7 million
- Data traffic surged 42.9% year-on-year
- Average data usage per subscriber jumped 33.6% to 11.2GB
MTN credits the surge to network upgrades, expanded 4G and early 5G rollout, and strategic pricing adjustments.
“We continued to drive smartphone penetration and 4G adoption while implementing pricing actions to support revenue growth,” the company stated.
With higher margins on data compared to voice, and falling unit costs as usage scales, MTN’s data strategy is significantly improving profitability. If current trends hold, the company could post ₦2 trillion+ in data revenue in FY 2025, generating ₦900 billion–₦1 trillion in EBITDA.
The telco’s earnings per share (EPS) now stands at ₦5.96, while its stock price climbed 59.6% year-to-date, closing at ₦319.20 on June 5, 2025.
This turnaround could position MTN to clear retained losses and resume dividend payments as early as 2026.
Airtel Africa: Steady Data Growth Despite Currency Headwinds
Like MTN, Airtel Nigeria is also leveraging data to drive performance, even as currency fluctuations cloud headline results.
For the year ending March 2025:
- Reported revenue fell 30% to $1.045 billion
- Data revenue dropped 26% to $483 million
However, adjusting for currency effects tells a different story:
- Revenue rose 36% in constant currency
- Data income surged 45%
“Our data business remains a key growth engine, supported by more smartphones, wider 4G coverage, and better network capacity,” Airtel explained.
Data now contributes 44% of Airtel Nigeria’s revenue. The company added 1.7 million new data users, reaching 29.1 million, while ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) rose to $1.9 in the last quarter.
Airtel Africa posted a $328 million profit after tax in FY 2025, bouncing back from an $89 million loss the previous year.
Can Data Sustain Dividends?
Airtel’s confidence in its data-led recovery is clear: the company declared a $0.04 final dividend per share for FY 2025. With data projected to contribute up to 70% of operating profit by 2026, the outlook for sustained dividend payouts is strong—even if voice and mobile money growth moderates.
Looking ahead, if ARPU climbs to $2 by Q4 2025, Airtel Nigeria could exceed $550 million in annual data revenue, underlining the robustness of its data model.
On the Nigerian Exchange, Airtel Africa shares closed at ₦2,372.50 on June 5, 2025, up 10% year-to-date, with a P/E ratio of 26x, significantly lower than MTN’s 53.56x—a potential signal of room for revaluation.
Bottom Line: Data is the New Oil for Telcos
Both MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa are capitalizing on the data boom to rewrite their financial narratives. With rising internet penetration, higher data consumption, and scalable margins, data is quickly becoming the most valuable asset on their balance sheets.
Investors should watch key indicators like ARPU, subscriber growth, and operating margins. These metrics could determine how soon MTN re-enters dividend territory—and how strongly Airtel sustains its payouts.
As Nigeria’s digital economy deepens, bytes are clearly the new voice—and the new bottom line.
