By Lu Yanan, Zhao Zhanhui, Ding Yiting, People’s Daily
Various economic indicators have suggested that the fundamentals for sound and stable growth of the Chinese economy remain unchanged and the necessary production factors for high-quality development remain unchanged.
China’s GDP grew by 6.2 percent year on year in the first three quarters this year, one of the fastest among the world’s major economies, data released on Oct.18 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
The 6.2-percent growth rate, although slightly lower than before, is still a high-speed growth under the global context, said Mao Shengyong, spokesperson for the NBS, adding that such a growth is estimated to be the fastest among countries with economic output of over $1 trillion.
China’s surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas stood at 5.2 percent in September, the same as August. The country had created a total of 10.97 million new urban jobs during the first nine months, finishing 99.7 percent of the target for the whole year.
As calculated by Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China, one percentage point of economic growth now means that the GDP has expanded $140 billion, much larger than before.
Also, one percentage point of GDP growth now brings far more new jobs than in the past, Li noted. Therefore, China’s employment has remained stable on the whole though its growth slowed down.
The per capita disposable income of Chinese citizens grew by 6.1 percent in real terms during the first three quarters this year, outpacing the country’s per capita GDP growth.
The service industry has been growing constantly and become a stronger support for Chinese economy. During the period, the added value of China’s service sector accounted for 54 percent of the country’s GDP, up 0.6 percentage points from the same period last year.
Meanwhile, the tertiary industry contributed 60.6 percent to the country’s GDP growth, 24.3 percentage points more than the secondary industry.
The service industry has constantly solidified its role as a stabilizer of the economy, said Mao.
China has witnessed constant dynamism and vitality in making innovations and creations as well as starting businesses.
During the first three quarters, the added value of high-tech manufacturing rose by 8.7 percent year on year, 3.1 percentage points higher than that of industrial enterprises above designated size and accounted 14.1 percent of the added value of all industrial enterprises above designated size.
From January to August, around 19,600 new enterprises were registered on average every day, signifying that the dynamism for innovation, creation, and starting business is becoming a strong driving force for high-quality economic development.
Some noticed that if there were a graph showing China’s GDP growth since the beginning of this year, then the country’s economy would be on a generally stable but modestly downward curve with the GDP growth of China in the first quarter, second quarter, and third quarter this year being 6.4 percent, 6.2 percent, and 6 percent respectively.
“The slowdown in China’s economic growth is more of a result of the slackening world economy and international trade,” said Kuang Xianming, director of the economic research center at the China Institute for Reform and Development.
In the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on Oct.15, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2019 to 3 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from its estimation this July. The figure is also the lowest level since the international financial crisis in 2008.
Forecast for growth of developed economies in this year and the next year fell to 1.7 percent, while that of emerging markets and developing economies were revised down to 3.9 and 4.6 percent respectively, according to the report.
While Chinese economic growth in the first three quarters slowed to 6.2 percent, the performance is among the best in the world.
Some said China’s 6.2 percent GDP growth is “a 27-year low”. However, do they know what the economy was like 27 years ago?
If excluding price difference, the size of Chinese economy today is 10 times that of 1992, with every one percentage point of the growth now representing 10 times as much as the economic value it used to in 1992. Likewise, the 6-percent economic growth in the third quarter this year cannot be simply compared with the same growth rate in the past.
With the increase in the size of the economy and the per capita income of the citizens, economic growth will gradually slow down, which is a common phenomenon that has happened to many countries including Germany, Japan, and South Korea, according to Yang Guangpu, associate research fellow with the macroeconomic research center of the Development Research Center of the State Council, saying that there should be no worry about such a common issue.
With a population of approximately 1.4 billion and the world’s biggest middle-income group of over 400 million people, China enjoys the greatest prospect of growth in the world and sees steady growth in its citizens’ incomes.
During the first three quarters, service consumption took up 50.6 percent of households’ final consumption expenditure.
“It has been estimated that the proportion of service consumption in the final consumption expenditures of China’s urban and rural residents would only be maintained at a steady level after it reached 60 to 65 percent, which means there’s still plenty of room for growth in service consumption,” Kuang pointed out.
China boasts vast space for investment. At present, the country’s per capita infrastructure level is equivalent to 20 to 30 percent of that of developed countries. In particular, there are enormous need for investment in infrastructure concerning such areas as people’s livelihood and regional development.
China has the most instruments and space for macroeconomic regulation and control in the world, Liu said, explaining that the country does not need to resort to massive stimulus measures.
Many problems can be overcome as long as China makes efforts to address major contradictions and continue following the guiding principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, Liu said.
“China has weathered out the Asian financial crisis and global financial crisis. We will be fine to cope with the downward pressure on the global economy in the next few years,” Liu added.
Aerial photo taken on Aug.30, 2019 shows the Lianyungang Port in Lianyungang city, east China’s Jiangsu province. (Photo by Wang Jianmin/People’s Daily Online)
Tourists enjoy the scenery of terraces in Multinational Autonomous County of Longsheng, south China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Oct.6, 2019. (Photo by Pan Zhixiang/People’s Daily Online)
Visitors interact with a service robot at the exhibition for international frontier scientific and technological achievements during the Zhongguancun Forum held in Beijing, Oct.19, 2019. (Photo by Chen Xiaogen/People’s Daily Online)
前三季度经济增速有所放缓怎么看？
人民日报记者 陆娅楠 赵展慧 丁怡婷
10月18日，中国经济“三季报”亮相，前三季度6.2%的增速在全球主要经济体中依然名列前茅。各种指标显示，中国经济发展健康稳定的基本面没有改变，支撑高质量发展的生产要素条件没有改变。
“尽管增速有所放缓，但前三季度6.2%的增速放在全球仍是一个高增速。”国家统计局新闻发言人毛盛勇说，“初步预计，在全球经济总量一万亿美元以上的经济体中，这个速度是最快的。”
9月份，全国城镇调查失业率为5.2%，和上月持平；前三季度，全国城镇新增就业1097万人，完成全年目标任务的99.7%。
中国人民大学副校长刘元春测算，目前中国经济每增长1个百分点，新增GDP规模为1400亿美元，远高于过去水平。“同样一个百分点的GDP增长，所带来的就业数量比以往多得多。因此虽然增速有所放缓，但就业总量仍保持稳定。”
前三季度全国居民人均可支配收入实际增长6.1%，跑赢人均GDP增速。
服务业支撑作用不断增强。前三季度，第三产业增加值占国内生产总值比重为54%，比上年同期提高0.6个百分点；第三产业增长对GDP增长的贡献率为60.6%，高于第二产业24.3个百分点。“服务业‘稳定器’作用不断巩固。”毛盛勇说。
创新创业创造活力奔涌。前三季度，高技术制造业增加值同比增长8.7%，快于规模以上工业3.1个百分点，占全部规模以上工业比重为14.1%。1—8月，我国日均新登记企业达1.96万户，创新创业创造正汇成高质量发展的强劲动力。
尽管成绩不错，但一些人也注意到，如果将今年以来的GDP增速绘成一幅图，一季度的6.4%、二季度的6.2%、三季度的6%将形成一条总体平稳、小幅放缓的曲线。如何看待经济增速有所放缓？
“当前中国经济增速回落，很大程度上是受世界经济和国际贸易增长都在放缓的影响。”中国（海南）改革发展研究院经济研究所所长匡贤明说。
国际货币基金组织（IMF）10月15日发布报告，将今年世界经济增速预期下调至3%，较7月份预测值放缓0.2个百分点。这也是2008年国际金融危机爆发以来最低水平。IMF预计发达经济体今明两年经济增速均放缓至1.7%，新兴市场和发展中经济体增速分别放缓至3.9%和4.6%。前三季度中国经济增速回落到6.2%，在世界范围内依然表现优异。
有人说，“中国GDP增速创27年新低”，可27年前，中国经济是什么样呢？
剔除价格因素，目前中国经济总量约是1992年的10倍，今天每增长一个百分点所带来的经济增量也相当于当年的10倍。今年三季度6%增速的“含金量”自然不可同日而语。
国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部副研究员杨光普认为，随着经济总量增加和人均收入提高，经济增速会逐步回落，这是德、日、韩等许多国家都经历过的共同现象，不必担忧。
中国拥有近14亿人口，中等收入群体达4亿多人，居民收入稳步增加，是全球最具成长性的消费市场。前三季度，在全部居民最终消费支出中，服务消费占比为50.6%。
“据估算，我国城乡居民服务消费占比要到60%—65%才会趋于平稳，这意味着服务消费还有很大的增长空间。”匡贤明说。
投资空间依然广阔。当下我国人均基础设施存量水平相当于发达国家的20%—30%，特别是在民生领域、区域发展等方面还有大量基础设施投资需求。
刘元春表示，从世界上看，中国的宏观调控工具最多、空间最大，我们无需“大水漫灌”，只要抓住主要矛盾，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，很多难题都能克服。“亚洲金融危机、国际金融危机这种难关都过来了，应对今后两年的世界经济下行压力，我们没问题。”
2019年8月30日航拍的江苏省连云港港口。王健民/人民图片
2019年10月6日，游客在广西龙胜各族自治县龙脊梯田观光游览。 潘志祥/人民图片
10月19日，中关村国际前沿科技成果展上，参观者与服务型机器人互动。 陈晓根/人民图片
