By Achadu Gabriel, Kaduna
Nigeria lost an estimated $15 billion annually to oil theft and pipeline sabotage between 2019 and 2024, resulting in stagnant crude oil production averaging 1.4 million barrels per day, well below the nation’s OPEC quota of 1.8 million barrels per day, according to a study by Professor Usman Muhammed of the Department of Political Science and International Studies, Kaduna State University.
Prof. Muhammed disclosed this during the 1st Citizens Engagement Conference (North-West Edition) held in Kaduna on Monday. He explained that the persistent losses have severely undermined Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector, weakening its contribution to national economic growth.
The study, which assessed Nigeria’s oil sector performance over five years, linked the nation’s economic health to the productivity of its upstream industry, describing the relationship as “positive yet weak” due to large-scale revenue leakages.
According to Prof. Muhammed, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and OPEC indicate that the sector’s contribution to the GDP dropped from 9% in 2019 to 6.6% in 2024. He added that investments declined by 24% within the same period, largely due to insecurity and fiscal uncertainty.
He stated, “Despite the introduction of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021, designed to overhaul the oil sector, its impact has been limited by implementation gaps and institutional inefficiencies.”
The researcher emphasized that without strategic reforms, Nigeria risks further underperformance despite possessing vast oil and gas reserves. He urged the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the NNPC Limited to harmonize their operations, eliminate bureaucratic bottlenecks, and accelerate licensing rounds to attract foreign investment.
The study suggested that full implementation of the PIA, alongside improved security for oil infrastructure, could boost fiscal revenue by as much as N3.2 trillion annually.
Benchmarking Nigeria’s performance against oil-producing nations such as Norway and Saudi Arabia, the report noted that these countries have achieved production stability and economic diversification through transparent regulatory institutions and synergy between the state and corporate stakeholders.
While Norway produces 1.9 million barrels per day and Saudi Arabia 9.2 million barrels per day, Nigeria’s 2024 output of 1.4 million barrels per day underscores the need for urgent reform and stronger governance.
Prof. Muhammed concluded that revitalizing the oil and gas sector is not an end in itself but a catalyst for financing national development, including infrastructure, job creation, and economic diversification under President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.
In a separate interview, Mallam Nasir AbdulQuadri, co-convener of the conference, said the initiative aims to enhance accountability and public understanding of government policies, particularly reforms in the oil and gas sector.
He defended the administration’s full deregulation of the petroleum industry, saying it was necessary to eliminate corruption associated with the former subsidy regime. “Over time, people looted subsidy funds and enriched themselves. Deregulation closes those loopholes,” he said.
AbdulQuadri also supported the government’s plan to sell moribund refineries, asserting that “it’s not the government’s business to run businesses, but to regulate them.” He cited the Dangote Refinery as a positive example of reforms encouraged by the PIA, adding that Nigeria’s growing energy independence was “long overdue.”
He urged Nigerians to remain patient despite the hardship caused by current reforms, noting that genuine transformation takes time. “We are not asking citizens to keep quiet but to engage constructively, ask questions, and hold leaders accountable,” he said.
