By Solomon Iliya Jefrey
Since gaining independence in 2011, South Sudan has been engulfed in persistent cycles of violence, humanitarian disasters, and political instability. What began as a hopeful journey to self-determination has devolved into one of the world’s most devastating crisis. The South Sudan conflict, primarily driven by power struggles, ethnic polarization in the Horn of Africa. This article critically assesses the South Sudanese crisis and explores its broader implications for regional peace, stability, and development.
The Horn of Africa, comprising Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan,and is one of the most geopolitically volatile regions in the world. The crisis in South Sudan has intensified cross-border insecurities, refugee influxes, and economic disruptions, thereby threatening regional integration and cooperation. Understanding the roots and impacts of this crisis is crucial to shaping sustainable peacebuilding strategies within both South Sudan and its surrounding region.
The origins of the South Sudan crisis can be traced to the historical marginalization and underdevelopment of southern Sudan prior to independence. The two civil wars between northern and southern Sudan (1955–1972 and 1983–2005) left deep scars that shaped the political landscape of the new state (Johnson, 2016). After independence, internal divisions within the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) escalated, culminating in civil war in December 2013 between President Salva Kiir and former Vice President Riek Machar. What began as a political disagreement quickly transformed into a full-scale ethnic conflict between Dinka and Nuer communities (International Crisis Group, 2021).
Beyond elite rivalries, structural weaknesses such as dependence on oil, weak institutions, and recurring environmental disasters have aggravated the crisis. The country’s overreliance on oil, accounting for over 90% of its revenue, has left it vulnerable to global price shocks and internal sabotage. Additionally, recurrent floods, droughts, and food shortages have fueled displacement and famine (Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO], 2023). The result has been a protracted humanitarian emergency, with millions displaced internally and across borders, and a shattered economy marked by poverty and inflation.
South Sudan’s instability does not exist in isolation. Its strategic location at the heart of the Horn of Africa makes it a regional concern. The spillover effects of its conflict have undermined regional peace, security, and cooperation in several ways.
The South Sudan crisis has triggered one of Africa’s largest refugee movements. Over two million refugees have fled to neighboring countries, mainly Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya, straining already limited resources and heightening social tensions (OCHA, 2024). Uganda alone hosts more than one million South Sudanese refugees, placing immense pressure on its infrastructure, healthcare, and education systems. These movements have also complicated regional relations as host communities grapple with economic and social burdens.
The proliferation of small arms and light weapons across South Sudan’s porous borders has intensified insecurity in the Horn of Africa. Rebel movements and criminal networks exploit weak border controls to engage in arms smuggling, cattle raiding, and illicit trade. These activities have destabilized border regions, especially between South Sudan and Ethiopia, Kenya, and the Central African Republic (Young, 2020). Furthermore, transnational armed groups have taken advantage of political vacuums to expand their influence.
South Sudan’s crisis has disrupted trade routes and economic integration within the Horn. The country’s oil pipelines run through Sudan, making both nations economically interdependent. Instability in Juba has led to frequent interruptions in oil production and transport, thereby reducing revenues for both states. Additionally, insecurity along transport corridors has discouraged investment and increased the cost of cross-border commerce (World Bank, 2024). The ripple effect extends to regional markets, undermining the goals of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) for economic cooperation.
Regional political tensions have fueled political rivalries among regional powers. Countries such as Uganda and Sudan have supported opposing factions at various times, reflecting their competing interests in oil and security. These interventions have occasionally prolonged the conflict instead of resolving it (Young, 2020). Meanwhile, IGAD’s mediation efforts have been constrained by the divergent agendas of member states. The resulting regional polarization complicates the peace process and risks entrenching instability across the Horn.
The humanitarian toll of the South Sudan conflict is catastrophic. Millions of people remain displaced, and entire communities have been devastated by violence, hunger, and disease. Food insecurity affects over half the population, with some areas on the brink of famine (World Food Programme [WFP], 2024). Neighboring countries hosting refugees face rising demands for aid, which has stretched the capacities of humanitarian organizations and regional governments alike.
The crisis has also eroded social cohesion, both within South Sudan and in refugee-hosting states. Ethnic mistrust and trauma have deepened, complicating peacebuilding and reconciliation efforts. Moreover, the widespread use of sexual violence as a weapon of war has left lasting physical and psychological wounds, with cross-border implications for gender-based violence interventions (Human Rights Watch, 2022).
Multiple peace initiatives have been undertaken to address the South Sudan crisis. The 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCSS) and the 2018 Revitalized Agreement (R-ARCSS) remain central to ongoing peace efforts (United Nations Mission in South Sudan [UNMISS], 2023). These agreements, facilitated by IGAD and supported by the African Union and United Nations, established a transitional government in 2020 and reduced large-scale hostilities. However, implementation has been inconsistent due to elite rivalries, lack of accountability, and weak institutions (International Crisis Group, 2021).
At the regional level, IGAD and the African Union have played significant roles in mediating peace, while neighboring countries such as Sudan and Uganda have hosted negotiations. Despite these efforts, peace remains fragile. The multiplicity of actors, overlapping mandates, and competing national interests have often diluted the effectiveness of regional diplomacy (Young, 2020). Sustainable peace in South Sudan thus requires coordinated regional action that aligns humanitarian, political, and economic interventions.
The crisis in South Sudan has profound implications for regional stability, development, and governance. Due to security threats, there is spread of armed groups, illicit trade, and transnational crime undermines regional security architectures. Persistent insecurity in South Sudan threatens to destabilize neighboring fragile states, particularly Sudan and Ethiopia.
The Economic Fragility in South Sudan has also contribute in the disruption of trade routes and has reduced oil revenues which has weaken regional economies and deter investment, it also hampers IGAD’s vision of regional integration.
The mass displacement of South Sudanese has transformed the Horn of Africa into a humanitarian hotspot The mass displacement of South Sudanese has transformed the Horn of Africa into a humanitarian hotspot, straining regional resources, border management, and social cohesion. At the same time, divergent approaches among regional powers toward South Sudan’s conflict have created diplomatic frictions that undermine collective action and weaken IGAD’s credibility as a peacebuilding institution. The South Sudan crisis thus remains a central threat to peace and development in the Horn, with its regional implications, ranging from refugee inflows to economic disruptions, underscoring the interconnectedness of security and governance across the region. Addressing this crisis requires both national and regional commitment: South Sudan must prioritize the full implementation of the R-ARCSS, strengthen state institutions, and promote inclusive governance, while IGAD should harmonize member states’ interests, enhance border management, and support economic recovery programs benefiting South Sudan and its neighbors. International partners must also align humanitarian assistance with long-term development goals to reduce dependency and foster resilience., straining regional resources, border management, and social cohesion. At the same time, divergent approaches among regional powers toward South Sudan’s conflict have created diplomatic frictions that undermine collective action and weaken IGAD’s credibility as a peacebuilding institution. The South Sudan crisis thus remains a central threat to peace and development in the Horn, with its regional implications, ranging from refugee inflows to economic disruptions, underscoring the interconnectedness of security and governance across the region. Addressing this crisis requires both national and regional commitment: South Sudan must prioritize the full implementation of the R-ARCSS, strengthen state institutions, and promote inclusive governance, while IGAD should harmonize member states’ interests, enhance border management, and support economic recovery programs benefiting South Sudan and its neighbors. International partners must also align humanitarian assistance with long-term development goals to reduce dependency and foster resilience. Ultimately, peace in South Sudan is not just a national imperative, it is a regional necessity. The stability of the Horn of Africa depends on transforming South Sudan from a source of conflict into a cornerstone of cooperation and prosperity.
Solomon Iliya Jeffrey, is a Graduate of History and International Studies from IBB University, Lapai
