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  • NBS Calls for Media Collaboration in Data Reporting

    NBS Calls for Media Collaboration in Data Reporting

    By Michael Ojewu, Abuja

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has called on the media to collaborate with the bureau, particularly in the areas of data production and reporting.

    Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, Statistician-General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer of the NBS made this known during a media sensitization session on the Nigerian Living Standards Survey (NLSS) 2022/23 and the rebasing of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Prices Index (CPI), held at the NBS headquarters in Abuja on Thursday.

    “As critical partners in the data production process, we want the media to become a strong voice and advocate for the work being done within the Bureau and the broader statistical system in the country. We expect your reporting to be accurate, objective, and sound, which will help build public confidence and trust in our work,” he said.

    The Statistician-General pointed out that the NBS views engagement with the media as an essential aspect of the data production process, aligning with the United Nations fundamental principles of official statistics, particularly accountability and transparency.

    “By fostering this collaboration, we enhance the credibility of the statistical system and build confidence in the NBS. This approach also promotes inclusivity, collaboration, and partnership throughout our data production processes,” he noted.

    “On our part, we are committed to remaining objective, open, transparent, and professional in our work, as these qualities are the foundation of our role as the national statistical agency. Our door will always be open for clarity, input, and valuable suggestions aimed at enriching our work.”

    NBS REBASES GDP, CPI, CONDUCTS NLSS SURVEY

    Addressing the topics of GDP and CPI rebasing, as well as the NLSS, the Statistician-General explained that CPI rebasing involves updating the weight and price reference periods to better reflect current consumption patterns, while GDP rebasing entails replacing an outdated base year with a more recent one, which improves the accuracy of measuring economic growth.

    Daybreak Nigeria reports that the GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced in a country while the CPI measures the average change in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services over a period of time.

    Adeniran noted that periodic rebasing, conducted every five years, helps account for structural changes in the economy over time and offers a more accurate snapshot of its composition.

    The Statistician-General also announced that the NBS conducted the Nigerian Living Standards Survey (NLSS) for 2022/23 to generate a national poverty headline rate and other essential indicators related to household welfare, consumption, and expenditure.

    He noted that the NLSS is conducted every four to five years, with the last round completed in 2018/2019, which reported a poverty rate of 40.1 per cent. He stressed that data collection for the survey spans a year to capture seasonal variations in household consumption and expenditure.

    “Households whose total consumption of both food and non-food falls below a certain threshold are classified as poor,” Adeniran stated.

  • We are Rebasing GDP and CPI to Reflect Current Economic Realities-NBS

    We are Rebasing GDP and CPI to Reflect Current Economic Realities-NBS

    By Michael Onjewu, Abuja

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has said that the methodology adopted for the rebasing of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Prices Index (CPI) align Nigeria’s economic data with current realities.

    The GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced in a country while the CPI measures the average change in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services over a period of time.

    Speaking at a media engagement at the NBS headquarters in Abuja on Thursday, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, the Statistician General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer of the NBS, said CPI rebasing involves updating the weight and price reference periods to better reflect current consumption patterns, while GDP Rebasing entails replacing an outdated base year with a more recent one, allowing for improved accuracy in measuring economic growth.

    Adeniran noted that periodic rebasing, conducted every five years, helps to account for structural changes in the economy over time and offers a more accurate snapshot of the economy’s composition.

    “GDP rebasing provides significant benefits by aligning economic data with the current realities of the economy. It improves the accuracy of growth measurements, supports better policymaking, and enhances the credibility of economic data both domestically and internationally,” he said.

    The Statistician-General said the NBS has also conducted the Nigerian Living Standards Survey (NLSS) for 2022/23 to generate a national poverty headline rate, along with other essential indicators related to household welfare, consumption, and expenditure.

    He noted that the NLSS is conducted every four to five years, with the last round completed in 2018/2019, which reported a poverty rate of 40.1 per cent. He stressed that data collection for the survey spans a year to capture seasonal variations in household consumption and expenditure.

    “Households whose total consumption of both food and non-food falls below a certain threshold are classified as poor,” Adeniran stated.

    The Statistician-General reiterated the NBS’s commitment to transparency and accountability in the data production process, in line with the United Nations fundamental principles of official statistics. He urged the media to ensure that data is reported accurately and objectively.

     

  • World Bank Projects 2.8 Million More Nigerians to Fall Into Poverty Due to Inflation and Low Growth

    World Bank Projects 2.8 Million More Nigerians to Fall Into Poverty Due to Inflation and Low Growth

    By Milcah Tanimu

    The World Bank has projected that rising inflation and low economic growth in Nigeria will result in an additional 2.8 million people falling into poverty by the end of 2023. The bank’s report, titled ‘Macro Poverty Outlook: Country-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing World,’ highlights the impact of high inflation, which reached a 17-year high of 24.1 percent in July 2023. Contributing factors include surging food prices and the temporary impact of removing the fuel subsidy. The report notes that the cumulative increase in the monetary policy rate since May 2022 has had limited success in curbing inflation due to clogged transmission channels and direct credit allocation by the central bank. The fiscal deficit has also risen, driven by increasing interest payments, higher capital spending, and the persistent high cost of the fuel subsidy. The World Bank predicts that public debt will reach 45 percent of GDP in 2023, with debt service exceeding total revenue. While the current account balance recorded a surplus in Q1 2023, it has not been sufficient to increase foreign reserves, posing challenges for economic stability. The report suggests that future economic growth in Nigeria will depend on the implementation of macro-fiscal and inclusive structural reforms. The World Bank expects inflation to moderate by 2024 and suggests targeted measures, such as cash transfers, to mitigate short-term adjustment costs for the poor and vulnerable.

  • Nigerian ICT Matrix Contributions to GDP

    Nigerian ICT Matrix Contributions to GDP

    By Adefolarin A. Olamilekan

    The beginning of 21st century witness a rising tide in globalization. Courtesy of the four significant mechanism that made it possible via financial capital, technology innovation, human capital development and global peace promotion.

    Exclusively, technology innovation birthed the penetrating forces behind Information and Communication Technology (ICT). That ensure a seamless embracement of globalization, and its economic enthronement. Although, this pieces is not about globalization, we reemphasize and acknowledge it strong effects delivered through ICT matrix. Again, globalization as it own criticism, especially in regard to third world countries economic successes.
    Convincingly, the route of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) impact global economy. Granting the current century as information technology revolution phenomenon’s.
    In reference and contrast to previous revolutionary age witnessed; Stone Age, Slave Epoch, Agricultural and Steaming Engine Industrialization.
    Instructively, ICT revolution brought about cutting edge article’s raging from; satellite, internet,mobile phone, Fin-Tech,spectrum broadband, wireless penetration,virtual work station, and emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI).Without doubt this are link’s through which ICT shaped and reshaped global economic activities.
    Significantly by disrupting status quo and reestablishing new ones. Arguably, human society have come to reckoned with ICT, as the world we live today, is on the beacon of ICT matrix.
    Critically, a modest history of ICT penetration in Nigeria dated back to the pre 2000 millennium’s. Emphatically with government seriousness in ensuring every Nigerian household’s acquired the table phones in the 1970s.
    Beyond that, trends in government policy fiat came through in early 2000s with mobile telephones licenses and other sectoral approach framework. Interestingly, ICT in Nigeria gain momentum in road as economic progression determinant since then.
    That why today breaking news never seized to be heard about the manner ICT impact the health of the nations Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
    In fact, the Nigeria GDP that is approximately value over $500billion US Dollar. With oil and gas industry having the larger share, and dominating every other industries.
    Draw government attention over the years to target a shift from the petrol dollar rentier economy with less real growth and appreciable development.
    However, deliberate refocusing on the non oil sector, rejuvenate the entire economy. That ICT is steering the ship toward that government ambitious of economic diversification.
    Consequently, a recently outstanding performance of the ICT in the Nigeria economy was published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
    According to the NBS the ” ICT services have contributed N2.508 trillion to Nigeria’s GDP in the first quarter of 2023″. We can relate this to how activities in the ICT sector contributed 16.22% to Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q4 2022.
    Simply, on a year-on-year basis, the sector growth rate increased by 10.72 percent in 2022, higher than the 7.28 reported in 2021.
    For instance ending 2022, contribution of the Nigerian ICT sector to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 9.76 percent in 2022 from 6.55 percent against statistics reported in 2021.
    Again, the 2022 full-year GDP report released by the NBS, show the ICT sector contributed 16.51 percent to the overall GDP, and that of 2021 stood at 15.51%.
    Succinctly, this is a rated performance from the sector compared to previous statistics on the sector.
    Understandably, NBS arriving at this statistics involved the calculations of 46 distinct sectors of the economy, which constitute oil and gas, ICT,manufacturing, banking,insurance,real estate,construction, transportation and other services baskets.
    Meanwhile, the ICT sector in Nigeria entails the following;Telecommunications and Information Services, Publishing, Motion Picture, Sound Recording, Music Production; and Broadcasting.
    However, a lots factors are said to be responsible for this impressive outing of the ICT contributions to the Nigerian GDP.
    Data from Nigerian Communication Commission (NCC), revealed the number of phone subscribers in Nigeria as at April 2023 stood at 223.6 million
    This is also followed by the number of Internet subscribers for the same period 157 million, while broadband subscriptions stood at 92 million.
    Yet still, other deliberate effort by the government and stakeholders in private sector transition to online engagement. Worth mentioning is Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cashless policy economy,and emerging embraced of Fin-Tech services by individuals and organisation along side the use of USSD, mobile and internet banking.
    We can both mentioned the revenue generated by Federal government 820.8 million dollars for the from 5G spectrum licences from three operators, MTN, MAFAB and Airtel, within the period under review.
    More so that FDI is bringing in capital importation in the ICT sector, added to the growth in the Nigerian economy. With the likes of Elon Musk-owned SpaceX having it issuance of licence for satellite-based wireless broadband service.
    ICT in Nigeria indeed show a positive outlook, which is credited to the innovative and predictable telecoms regulatory environment and others. Although, the sector still has it own challenges, particularly on interior areas penetration and multiple taxation complains.
    Nonetheless, the federal government to increase the contribution of the ICT sector to GDP via a five-year plan, all hands must be on deck where the government priorities what is necessary to achieve the set goal by the end of the year 2025.
    On the long run, Nigerian ICT matrix reason for the GDP growth, and still counting.

  • Telecom Sector Contributes N2.508 Trillion to Nigeria’s GDP

    Telecom Sector Contributes N2.508 Trillion to Nigeria’s GDP

    The telecommunications and Information Services sector in Nigeria has, in the first quarter 2023, delivered a handsome N2.508 trillion in terms of financial value contribution to the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP), representing 14.13 per cent.

    Figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that the sector recorded a 4.3 per cent. increase from its performance in the last quarter of 2022 when it recorded 13.55 per cent. .

    When compared on a year-on-year basis, the growth showed positive progression from 12.94 per cent. in the first quarter of 2022 , to the 2023 figure of 14.13, which is an approximate growth by 9.19 per cent. .

    The percentage of telecom contribution to GDP was calculated from 46 distinct sectors of the economy, which constitute telecom and information services baskets.

    The Nigerian telecom industry has continued its show of positive outlook, which is credited to the innovative and predictable telecom regulatory environment promoted, and implemented by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC).

    One of the key highlights of the telecom industry performance within the period was the generation of $820.8 Million for the federal government from 5G spectrum licences fees paid by three eventual winning operators, MTN, MAFAB and Airtel.

    Following the issuance of the licences in December 2021 to MTN and MAFAB, both companies have launched 5G services. Airtel, which received its licence in December 2022, is set to launch services this month, June 2023.

    Another major development in the sector was the launch of Starlinks broadband services, a satellite-based wireless broadband services with potential nationwide coverage. This followed the issuance of licence to Elon Musk-owned SpaceX by the Commission. The services are now available in different parts of the country.

    Meanwhile, the growth statistics of the telecom industry are showing an impressive record of contributions to the economy. The number of phone subscribers as at April 2023, stood at 223.6 million subscribers, scoring a teledensity of 117 per cent. . Internet subscribers for the same period were 157 million while Broadband subscriptions stood at 92 Million, translating to 48 per cent. broadband penetration in the country.

  • Nigeria’s GDP Fell To 2.31% In Q1 2023, Says NBS

    Nigeria’s GDP Fell To 2.31% In Q1 2023, Says NBS

    A report by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), shows that the nation’s Gross Domestic Product growth fell to 2.31 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 from 3.52 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022.

    According an NBS report the decline was due to the adverse effects of the cash crunch experienced during the quarter.

    “Gross Domestic Product grew by 2.31 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2023.

    “This growth rate declined from 3.11 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2022, and 3.52 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022.

    “The reduction in growth is attributed to the adverse effects of the cash crunch experienced during the quarter,” NBS’ report partly read.

    Findings within the report suggest that the performance of the GDP in the first quarter of 2023 was driven mainly by the services sector, which recorded a growth of 4.35 per cent and contributed 57.29 per cent to the aggregate GDP.

    The agriculture sector grew by -0.90 per cent, lower than the growth of 3.16 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2022.

    According to the the report, despite the fact that there were improvements in the industry sector, both agriculture and industries contributed less to the aggregate GDP in the quarter under review compared to the first quarter of 2022.

  • REVEALED: How Much FG Targeted as GDP By 2050?

    REVEALED: How Much FG Targeted as GDP By 2050?

    The federal government has said it is targeting a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of over $12 trillion and per capita income of $33,000 per annum by 2050.

    The Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed, disclosed this yesterday in Abuja at the launch of the National Plan for Financing Safe Schools.

    She said, “With an average real GDP growth rate of seven per cent, a GDP of about $12trn by 2050 and an end period per capita income of $33,000 per annum is projected.

    “These lofty targets can only be actualised if all critical stakeholders collaboratively create safer teaching and learning environments across Nigeria via critical intervention investments as captured in the validated cost plans of action.”

    Ahmed further said the federal government made a commitment at a high-level meeting on financing safe schools in partnership with EEG in 2021 to facilitate adequate funding in protecting education from attacks.

    She said the commitments led to the development of the “National Plan”, adding that the plan would be implemented between 2023 and 2026 with a total investment size of N144.8bn.

  • How Real Estate, Construction Sectors Contributed to GDP in 2022

    How Real Estate, Construction Sectors Contributed to GDP in 2022

    Economic activities in the construction and real estate sectors contributed N20tn to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product in the first three quarters of 2022.

    This is according to the GDP report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

    The report showed that construction services earned N12.9tn while real estate contributed N7tn to the GDP.

    Further analysis revealed that construction contributed 9.5 per cent to nominal GDP in the third quarter of 2022, higher than the 9.26 per cent it contributed a year earlier and higher than the 7.95 per cent contributed in the second quarter of 2022 and also grew by 18.92 per cent in nominal terms (year-on-year) in the 2022 third quarter.

    The sector however dropped 28.75 per cent points compared to the rate of 47.67 per cent recorded in the same quarter of 2021.

    According to the national statistics body, real estate services in nominal terms grew by 9.13 per cent, higher by 0.50 per cent points than the growth rate reported for the same period in 2021 and lower by 3.68 per cent points compared to the preceding Quarter.

    On a Quarter-on-Quarter, the sector growth rate was 16.38 per cent. The contribution to nominal GDP in Q3, 2022 stood at 4.96 per cent, relative to 5.27 per cent recorded in the third quarter of 2021 and higher than the 4.95 per cent accounted for in the second quarter of 2022.

    The NBS calculates the sector’s contribution by adding up gross outputs such as a sum of fees, the value of work done, commissions receivable for the services rendered and other incomes.

    It also considers intermediate consumptions such as details of the cost structure including transportation fees, operational expenditure, minor repairs and maintenance etc.

    Reacting, the Chairman, Real Estate Developer Association of Nigeria, Aliyu Wamakko, stated that the contributed amount had revealed what the private sector could achieve.

    He said, “When you talk about real estate, it is driven by private investors. This means for any economy to strive, the private sector must be given a platform and a level playing ground for them to perform.

    For example, creating jobs in real estate doesn’t require an incubation period, anytime you start building a house, at least 25 persons will get a job. So, if the government want to support the economy of the country, more opportunities should be given to the private sector.

  • Nigeria’s GDP Slows to 3.54% in Q2

    Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.54 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the second quarter of 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Friday.

    The growth rate indicated a decline from the 5.01 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 2021 when rapid growth was recorded following the toll the COVID-19 pandemic exacted on the economy in Q2 2020.

    According to the Nigerian GDP Report Q2 2022, which was posted on the NBS website, the recent rising prices of goods and commodities have adversely impacted on the Q2 2022 performance.

    The growth rate in Q2 decreased by 1.47 per cent from 5.01 per cent growth rate recorded in Q2 2021 and increased by 0.44 per cent relative to 3.11 per cent in Q1 2022.

    However, quarter-on-quarter, real GDP grew at -0.37 per cent in Q2, reflecting lower economic activity compared to the preceding quarter.

    Details later….

  • Understanding Nigeria’s Anaemic GDP Growth and Interest Rate Hike

    Understanding Nigeria’s Anaemic GDP Growth and Interest Rate Hike

    By Adefolarin A Olamilekan

    The global economic as of today is in great need of resetting. If not, we are not far away from another earth shaking world economic meltdown.

    Why am l saying this,readers of this column should bear it in mind.That the outlook of global economic growth and development is still envelop with uncertainties of post COVID-19 pandemic.
    For instance the growth in economics is not measurable with trending reality of mass poverty,hunger,job cutt and surging cost of living.
    Regreattably, the global economic environment is grappling with inflation.The rich and developed countries are not spared.So much so the poor,developing and underdeveloped nations are counting losses.
    In short, United State of America,United Kingdom and other Western European Nations economics policy.As been overtaking with contraction in the system.
    Therefore making their economic policy just good on paper at this point.
    The US in particular being the world largest and developed economy in the last three months continuels to take cautionary measures.So that businesses, investments and livelihood of citizens would not be eroded.
    However, fingers are been pointed at the Ukrain- Russian war as drivers of the current global economic woes.
    Critically, we cannot also rule out the greed of global capitalism not just the war in Eastern Europe as responsible.
    Interestingly, two breaking news in Nigeria in recent time. Was about Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that grew by 3.11% (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2022.
    And the second is the CBN’s new Interest rate hike after six years to 13% from 11.5% a 150bps increase.
    Both development actually attract reactions from several experts. Suggesting,we are in for a big deal of economic turn around,if managers of our economy do it rightly.
    Nonetheless, the concerns on this economic reports arose some thought provoking questions.
    As in what is the reality of the current GDP growth of 3.11% in relation to concret measures of better life of Nigerians?
    Another is what are the risk associated with interest rate hike in Nigeria in this period of galloping inflations?.
    A summary of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released Gross Domestic Report, indicated that
    Q1 2022 growth rate was higher than the 0.51% growth rate recorded in the corresponding period of 2021 by 2.60% points and lower than 3.98% recorded in Q4 2021 by 0.88% points.
    Chiefly, from a real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 93.37% to the nation’s GDP while the oil sector accounted for 6.63% of the GDP in the review period.
    We must however,appreciate the non-oil sector responsible for the growth that includes Information and Communication (ICT); Trade; Financial and Insurance: Agriculture; and Manufacturing.
    On the other hand the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) voted to hike intrest rate to 13 percent to tame rising inflation.
    According to Godwin Emefiele, governor of the apex bank six out of eleven committee members voted to raise the key rate.
    He added that “while it may seem contradictory to raise rates in the face of fragile growth, it is a dilemma that most central banks around the world today are grappling with at this time. On balance, it is quite clear and compelling that attacking inflation is more urgent in the sequence of policy objectives in this regard.”
    Succintly,this new rate show the CBN change from its heterodox stance on monetary policy to a hawkish attitude.
    The apex bank chief allude that “to reduce inflationary pressure, CBN decided to take a shift on historical stance on monetary policy rate.”
    Instructively, major Central banks across the globe reportedly adjusted their rate reseason be the sharp rise in “inflation driven by rising demands and wage bills”
    Unfortunately, for Sub- Sahara African country like Nigeria that survive on petro dollar revenue.Equally at the same time is an import dependent market economy.
    A lots of contradiction is expected to take centre stage both on the macro and micro economics sectors as a results of hike in rate. And we are going to feel this both from the negatives and positives. Even as the negatives outweight the positive as a results of our economic structural deficiency.
    Meanwhile, risks such as a slowing down of the manufacturing and productive sectors that depends on loans and borrowing from banks.Have to be acknowledge from the fact.That cost of bank loans would hit the roof top due to interest payment and other charges. This would be followed by challenging impact on disposable income.
    Significantly,people that are good at saving money as well as investors in stock are joyous at the news of hike in interest rates.This is consider as best match to cure inflation. Especially with the inflow of FDI and Foreign Portfolio into the Nigerian environment. Arguably, FDI are “Hot Money” flow that can create volitality in stock and capital market. We must be cautious about it alongside other related challenges.
    Foremost, fear of hike rate is it consequent that may lead to GDP decline growth. And for us this our much celebrated sixth consecutive quarter of positive growth of Nigerian economy on paper. In reality would just remain ‘Anaemic’ in nature.With no tangible or real impact to better the life of Nigerians.
    Nonetheless, we appreciate the move by CBN to lessen inflationary opressures and attempt to reduce naira rate of depreciation. This also follows the apex bank march toward boosting Nigerian asses to attract foreign investors and stimulating capital inflows to sustain the naira.
    Essentially, as we concludes,the CBN interest rate hike tend to have followed global trends. Poignantly, the apex still have a lot to do to fight inflation,this its must be guarded to do.
    Going forward our modest recommendations as to what need to be done.In particularly,is to redouble effortgovernment effort to strenghten domestic economy. That require the federal,state and local government.To put in place a strategic economic policy that are not just cosmetic in tackling our structural deficits.
    In addition, Nigeria government must rethink its fiscal and monetary expansionary policies so as to move beyond anaemic GDP growth.For us it time to stop throwing money at national problems in the name of empowerment or poverty alleviation.
    Lastly, the nations economic drive toward none oil sector growth must be sustained.And this must be done in clarity,relevance and provision of critical infrastructures.That would make government engaging and business like.