Following the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) recent report of a N6.94 trillion trade surplus in the second quarter of 2024, Nigerian think tank Pol Eco Analytics has cautioned that while the surplus is positive, it does not necessarily indicate an improvement in the broader economy.
In a statement released over the weekend in Abuja, Senior Researcher and Policy Analyst Adefolarin A. Olamilekan clarified that although a trade surplus shows that a country’s exports exceed its imports, it is not sufficient to address the high cost of living or improve the ease of doing business in Nigeria.
The NBS report highlighted that Nigeria’s total trade in Q2 2024 stood at N31.89 trillion, marking a 3.76% decrease from Q1 2024, but a 150.39% increase compared to Q2 2023. Exports accounted for N19.42 trillion, or 60.89% of total trade, while imports stood at N12.47 trillion. Notably, exports increased by 1.31% compared to Q1 2024 and by 201.76% compared to Q2 2023.
Pol Eco Analytics acknowledged the N6.94 trillion trade surplus as a sign of economic resilience but emphasized that trade surpluses do not guarantee overall economic health, nor do trade deficits necessarily signal weakness.
“Nigerian policymakers must focus on aligning fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize prices and avoid the pitfalls of sustained fiscal imbalances,” said Adefolarin. He also stressed the importance of wisely investing financial capital flows resulting from either trade surpluses or deficits.
From an economic development perspective, the current situation—real GDP growth averaging 2.6%, unemployment at 37%, and a poverty rate of 38.8%—coupled with the ongoing cost of living crisis, presents serious challenges. Pol Eco Analytics urged the government to take concrete measures to alleviate these hardships, despite the positive trade surplus figures in both Q1 and Q2 2024.
The think tank called on President Tinubu and his economic team to prioritize investments in sectors that would transform Nigeria into an export-oriented economy. Strategic diversification beyond oil and gas revenues is essential to achieve sustainable growth and development.
The NBS report also noted that crude oil exports dominated Nigeria’s trade, amounting to N14.56 trillion (74.98% of total exports), while non-crude oil exports totaled N4.86 trillion (25.02%). Non-oil products contributed N1.94 trillion, or 10.01% of total exports.
Key export partners in Q2 2024 included Spain, the U.S., France, India, and the Netherlands. China remained Nigeria’s top trading partner, followed by Belgium, India, the U.S., and the Netherlands.
