By Abigail Philip David
This year is “virtually certain” to surpass 2023 as the hottest year ever recorded, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This announcement comes just ahead of the UN COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, where world leaders will discuss major funding increases to combat climate change.
C3S reported that global temperatures from January to October 2024 have been exceptionally high, making it inevitable that 2024 will set a new heat record unless there is an unlikely, drastic temperature drop by year-end. “The fundamental cause of this record-breaking heat is climate change,” said C3S Director Carlo Buontempo, noting that warming is occurring on every continent and across all ocean basins.
For the first time, scientists predict that global temperatures this year will exceed the 1.5°C increase benchmark compared to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). This threshold, highlighted in the 2015 Paris Agreement, is intended to limit severe climate impacts. However, C3S data indicates that the global average temperature could surpass this mark around 2030, reflecting the slow pace of climate action.
Climate scientist Sonia Seneviratne from ETH Zurich emphasized the need for stronger commitments at COP29 to transition economies away from fossil fuels. “The Paris Agreement limits are at risk due to insufficient progress on climate action,” Seneviratne stated, urging governments to step up efforts.
The consequences of each temperature rise are already evident, with 2024 witnessing severe climate-related disasters worldwide. Flash floods in Spain, record wildfires in Peru, and floods in Bangladesh that destroyed over a million tonnes of rice all underscored the human and economic costs of climate change. In the U.S., Hurricane Milton’s intensity was also linked to climate warming.
C3S, whose records date back to 1940, cross-checks data with global temperature records going back to 1850, reinforcing its projections that 2024 will go down as a historic year in the warming trend.
