Next week in Abuja, health ministers across the continent and the world will gather for an incredibly important high-level meeting focusing on tuberculosis hosted by Health Minister Prof. Muhammad Ali Pate.
Nigeria has made important strides in tackling tuberculosis, including deploying a case management system nationwide and increasing the number of cases that are diagnosed, notified, and treated. Unfortunately, in 2021, tuberculosis still killed 125,000 Nigerians.
Indeed, globally, tuberculosis kills more people than any other infectious disease—but it does not get enough attention. For too long, global agencies and donors have focused on other priorities. Ending TB is possible with willpower and more resources. The health ministers’ meeting in Nigeria will be an important step in the right direction and shows the world Nigeria’s commitment to ending tuberculosis.
In fact, tackling tuberculosis is one of the greatest investments that the world could make. Research for my think tank, the Copenhagen Consensus, found that global spending of an additional $6.2 billion each year would ensure at least 95 per cent of people with tuberculosis receive a diagnosis and ensure most patients stay on their medication.
In the long term, this would save a million lives annually. The total benefits, expressed in economic terms, mostly from avoided deaths, would reach US$3 trillion. Each dollar spent will generate $46 of social benefits for the world.
Tackling tuberculosis was one of the 12 smartest investments we identified when we worked with more than 100 economists and several Nobel Laureates to analyse the Sustainable Development Goals—the United Nations’ list of targets to achieve by 2030.
Unfortunately, the world is failing on these targets. On current trends, the world will be almost a century late delivering across all its promises. The reason is clear: the United Nations and the world’s politicians made an impossibly long list of 169 promises, which is indistinguishable from having none.
Our peer-reviewed research solves this problem by highlighting the 12 most efficient promises for the United Nations and the world to focus on. It highlights where each dollar, pound, euro, or naira can be spent to do the best first.
The idea is simple: Some things are difficult to fix, expensive, and help little. Other problems we already know how to fix, at low cost, with remarkable outcomes. We should do these smart things first. Some of the world’s most efficient solutions are to fix tuberculosis, malaria, and chronic disease; tackle malnutrition; improve education; increase trade; implement e-procurement; and secure land tenure.
Take education. Unfortunately, there are many ways to spend lots of money and achieve very little or even no learning. But many large-scale studies show a few ways to deliver incredible learning at low cost. One such example is placing young pupils for one hour a day in front of a tablet with educational software. The tablet will quickly adjust learning to the child’s own level and teach reading, writing, and basic arithmetic. At a cost of $30 per child per year, this can deliver an incredible tripling of learning—as much as the child would otherwise have spent three years learning. This will improve the child’s long-term productivity by $2,000, delivering an amazing 66-fold return on investment.
In total, we found that 12 simple policies—from tuberculosis to education—will deliver outstanding returns. For $35 billion a year, these policies would save 4.2 million lives each year and generate $1.1 trillion more for the world’s poorer half.
The world can definitely afford it: The annual cost of $35 billion is equivalent to the increase in annual global spending on cosmetics over just two years. And the world should do it: Each dollar spent will deliver $52 of global benefits.
While these 12 policies will turbocharge development globally, every country has its own goals, complexities, and challenges. Nigeria, a giant in Africa in terms of both population and economy, has worked hard to create a thriving, mixed economy. What policies can achieve the most for Nigeria? The same research approach that we have used at the global level should be replicated at the national scale, tailored for Nigeria to identify and highlight its most effective investments.
We should do such a project, Nigeria Priorities, to highlight where the next naira can deliver the best for Nigeria. We hope to engage with everyone, from the finance ministry and across the government, from labour to businesses, from faith groups to civil society, and we’re looking to engage with the Dangote Foundation, development partners, and other important players. At low cost, this can leverage the public budget to deliver tens or even hundreds of times more benefits.
Imagine the power of research from Nigeria and the world’s top economists mapping out the costs and benefits of policies across Nigeria, highlighting the policies that would achieve the best at the lowest cost.
As the high-level tuberculosis conference hosted by Nigeria next week makes very clear, focusing on the most efficient policies matters a lot. If we could do this globally across the 12 best policies, it would dramatically better the world. And if we could do this here through the Nigeria Priorities project, we can turbocharge Nigeria’s future.
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