By Rachel Ndakotsu, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution
The Sahel, a vast semi-arid region spanning from Mauritania to Sudan, has become a hotbed for jihadist groups like Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), and the rising Lakurawa faction. These transnational Terrorist’s, and their exploitation of porous borders and weak governance is spilling chaos into Nigeria, escalating an already dire security crisis.
This spillover involves the movement of fighters, weapons, and extremist ideologies across West Africa. Nigeria, long battling Boko Haram and its splinter, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), now faces a growing threat. Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) shows a 40% surge in cross-border attacks in Nigeria’s northeast and northwest in 2024, linked to instability from coups in Niger (2023) and Burkina Faso (2022). Over 150 fighters from Mali and Niger joined ISWAP camps last year, while Lakurawa has carved out a new insurgency hub in Sokoto and Kebbi states.These groups operate like a shadowy network, using smuggling routes to move Libyan-sourced AK-47s through Niger’s Tillabéri region to Boko Haram. Lakurawa, meanwhile, recruits Fulani herders with propaganda echoing Sahelian calls for a caliphate. Tactics cross borders too—ISWAP’s 2024 Maiduguri bombings, which killed 15, used advanced explosives learned from JNIM. These groups also fund themselves through criminal rackets, like taxing Lake Chad fisheries or rustling cattle, blending jihadism with organized crime.The toll is devastating, as the United Nations reports 3.3 million people have been displaced in Nigeria’s northeast, with 300,000 Sahelian refugees overwhelming local resources and fueling radicalization in camps. In the northwest, Lakurawa-linked violence killed 59 civilians between January and June 2025. Nigeria has also lost $10 billion to conflict-related economic damage, according to the World Bank, while corrupt border patrols struggle to stem the tide.
This crisis matters because jihadist groups exploit shared weaknesses—ungoverned borders, ethnic tensions, and failing governance. Lakurawa, for instance, taps into Fulani herder-farmer conflicts, mirroring JNIM’s shadow governance in Mali. If unchecked, Nigeria’s north region could see jihadists controlling 20% of its territory by 2030, according to ACLED projections. For Nigeria, the threat is personal. JNIM’s October 30 raid on a Kwara military post marked its Nigerian debut, killing a soldier and signaling intent toward Abuja in the northwest, “Lakurawa” – ISSP-linked Fulani recruits – has launched 13 attacks in Sokoto and Kebbi since January, killing 59 civilians, imposing zakat taxes, and controlling 27 villages with Motorcycle convoys cross the 1,500-km Niger border unchallenged, blending with local bandits for arms and funds, and the killing of general Musa Uba and the abduction of 25 school girls in kebbi.
Borno northeast is not an exemption. with September ambushes by Islamic state of West Africa Province (ISWAP) killing over 250, amplified by Sahel supply lines. With 12 million illicit arms circulating the Lake Chad Basin, Nigeria’s 2.2 million IDPs flee the north east. The jihadist influx from west and east leverage on Porous forests in Niger State link to Benin, turning the northwest into a harbinger for terrorist. Nigeria needs urgent regional action. The Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) must strengthen intelligence-sharing, even with Sahelian juntas. Drones and biometric border tech could help secure frontiers, while skill acquisition programs for returnees and youth—60% of Nigeria’s population is under 25—can address root causes like poverty and climate-driven resource disputes, Nigeria must initiate a reconciliation between the ECOWAS and Mali ,Burkina Faso and Niger to create a united and common font to fight jihadists in the region, also the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) must lead a unified response to this borderless threat. Nigeria at this point stands at a critical juncture in this threat moreso, the Sahel’s jihadist crisis is not just Nigeria’s problem—it’s a regional emergency. Without collective action, West Africa risks deeper instability, with Nigeria on the frontline.
