By Emmanuel Samdave Onuche
The Sahel has emerged as the world’s deadliest theatre of terrorism, and Nigeria can no longer treat the crisis as a distant regional upheaval. According to the in its 2024 , the Sahel now accounts for more than half of all terrorism-related deaths globally, overtaking the Middle East as the epicentre of extremist violence.
The deterioration of security in , and has created vast ungoverned spaces exploited by jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Military coups, fragile institutions and shrinking international engagement have further deepened instability across the belt.
Nigeria’s Strategic Exposure
Nigeria’s geography places it directly south of this volatile corridor. Its long, porous borders and deep socio-cultural ties with Sahelian communities heighten vulnerability to the spillover of fighters, weapons and extremist ideology.
The illustrates this transnational threat. Insurgent groups such as and operate fluidly across Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon, exploiting border weaknesses. Data from the shows thousands of jihadist attacks across the central Sahel in 2024, with several occurring dangerously close to Nigeria’s northern frontiers.
Proliferation of Arms and Criminal Convergence
The flow of small arms and light weapons from Sahelian conflict zones has intensified insecurity within Nigeria. The has repeatedly warned that weapons from Libya-era stockpiles and active Sahel battlefields continue to move southward.
These arms have empowered criminal networks responsible for banditry, kidnapping and communal violence in northern Nigeria. Increasingly, the operational lines between organised crime and terrorism are blurring, creating a hybrid threat environment that complicates counter-insurgency responses.
Humanitarian Pressure and Social Fragility
The crisis extends beyond security. The estimates that more than three million people remain displaced across the Lake Chad region. Nigeria hosts a significant share, alongside millions internally displaced by domestic conflicts.
While humanitarian protection remains a moral and legal obligation, unmanaged displacement strains public services, intensifies resource competition and can create recruitment opportunities for extremist groups.
Governance Gaps and Ideological Risk
Extremist movements thrive in environments marked by poverty, unemployment and weak state legitimacy. In parts of northern Nigeria, youth unemployment, limited educational access and fragile public trust create fertile ground for radical narratives.
The withdrawal or scaling down of foreign military missions in Mali and Niger may further embolden militant groups to seek new operational spaces. Without proactive measures, Nigeria’s northern states risk becoming attractive expansion zones.
The Imperative of Preparedness
The warning signs are clear. Terrorism does not respect borders, and proximity alone places Nigeria on the frontline of a widening regional conflict. Strengthening border security, enhancing regional intelligence cooperation, disrupting arms trafficking networks, investing in youth employment and restoring public trust in governance must become urgent national priorities.
Failure to act decisively could see Nigeria drawn deeper into the Sahel’s expanding conflict arc. Preparedness, coordination and sustained political will today will determine whether the country contains the threat—or becomes its next major battleground.
