Canadians began voting Monday in a pivotal election overshadowed by escalating tensions with the United States, after President Donald Trump called for Canada to join the US as its 51st state.
The election saw Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party fighting to retain power against Conservative challenger Pierre Poilievre. Initially trailing in the polls, Carney’s Liberals experienced a late surge following Trump’s provocative intervention.
Posting on Truth Social, Trump declared Canada would face “ZERO TARIFFS” if it agreed to become “the cherished 51st state,” adding, “IT WAS MEANT TO BE!”
Carney, 60, a former central bank chief in Canada and Britain and a newcomer to electoral politics, replaced Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader just last month. Throughout the campaign, Carney emphasized his experience in global finance, arguing it uniquely qualified him to navigate Canada through rising economic hostilities with its southern neighbor.
“The United States under Trump wants to break us so they can own us,” Carney warned, urging Canadians to choose stability over chaos. “We don’t need anger — we need an adult.”
Meanwhile, Poilievre, a 45-year-old career politician, sought to keep the focus on domestic issues that had eroded Trudeau’s popularity, particularly the surging cost of living. He argued that another Liberal government would only prolong what he called “the lost Liberal decade,” while promising a new direction on crime, housing, and economic management.
“You cannot handle another four years of this,” Poilievre told supporters over the weekend.
While Poilievre criticized Trump’s interference, he also blamed years of Liberal governance for leaving Canada vulnerable to external pressures.
Voters Caught Between Change and Stability
Heading into election day, polls indicated a tight race, but gave Carney a slight edge. Surveys consistently showed Canadians trusting the former banker more to manage the growing crisis with the US.
“This election is different,” said Montreal engineer Hamza Fahri, who initially wanted a change in leadership but ultimately decided to vote Liberal. “Carney is a strong, serious man and that’s what we need to face Trump.”
However, others like Kelsey Leschasin from Saskatchewan emphasized the need for domestic change. “I don’t agree with how the Liberals are running the country,” she said during a visit to Montreal.
Some voters lamented that American politics had dominated the Canadian campaign. “It’s unfortunate that we only talked about Trump,” said Julie Demers, a 37-year-old mother of two, noting that issues like social equality were largely sidelined.
Historic Comeback?
If Carney manages to secure a victory, it would represent one of the most dramatic comebacks in Canadian political history. At the start of the year, the Liberals were trailing by more than 20 points, and Poilievre seemed poised to win.
But Carney’s leadership and Trump’s unexpected rhetoric transformed the landscape.
According to CBC’s final poll aggregator, the Liberals held 42.8 percent support nationally, compared to 38.8 percent for the Conservatives. Still, like US elections, national polling can be a poor predictor in a parliamentary system where regional results matter deeply.
Smaller parties, including the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) and the separatist Bloc Québécois, could once again play a decisive role in whether the Liberals can form a majority or minority government.
Nearly 29 million Canadians are eligible to vote across the country’s six time zones, with a record 7.3 million having already cast ballots in advance voting.
In total, 343 parliamentary seats are up for grabs, with 172 needed for a majority. The Liberals last won a majority in 2015 but have governed in a minority since 2019.
