By Charles Onunaiju
As the outcome of the Beijing summit of the Forum for China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) held in September, last year enters a crucial stage of vigorous implementation, a freah vista is emerging in the mutual opportunities of the two sides. Just before the 4th edition of the China Africa Economic and Trade Expo opens in the Chinese provincial city of Changsha, the two sides issued a pivotal declaration whose echoes would consequentially impart the future trajectories of cooperation and engagement , scaling up the fresh horizons of mutual opportunities while consolidating the existing ones.
The declaration is an unequivocal affirmation of the certainty that China Africa Cooperation injects to an increasingly uncertain world but more importantly a tangible input and real value additions that raises 5ge bar of the Sino Africa as exemplary model of international partnership that delivers practical outcome and concrete results. A line in the declaration that would resonate across Africa and a definitive game changer that responds to anxieties across region especially in the face of Washington,s disruptive trade and tariff wars, is the express readiness of China to ” through negotiating and signing the agreement of of China Africa Economic Partnership for Shared Development, expand the zero tariff treatment for 100 percent tariff lines to all 53 African countries having diplomatic relations with China or all African countries except Eswatini, to welcome qaulity products from Africa to the Chinese market. For the least developed countries in Africa, on top of the zero tariff treatment for 100 percent tariff lines announced at the 2024 Beijing summit of FOCAC, China will roll out measures on market access, inspection and quarantine and custom clearance to boost trade in goods, enhance skills and technical training and the promotion of qaulity products. This consolidates and exponentially expand tge opportunity of access to the huge market for all African countries with implications for giving practical effects to the long standing policy concerns for the diversification of the respective economies of African countries and giving the advanges of the long desired economies of scale for the region.
Throughthis initiatives, China Africa cooperation have lived up to its reputation as issues identifying mechanism with effective inclination for problem and value-adding process, less on rehtoric and more practical and tangible outcomes.
There has been already an extensive mechanism and process providing considerable impetus for Africa to scale up her trade and economic relations with China, but Washington’s disruptive geo-political maneuveres disguised as tariff wars has generated an added momentum to engage more productively. China, s irreducible policy of wider and deeper opening up and incrementally qualitative reform process gives guarantee to countries adjusting their economies for greater productivity and output, an international partner with a steady, stable and reliable policy environment that is not easily vitiated by the shifting idiosyncrasies of leadership temperaments as Washington is prone to.
Having reserved the most incendiary rhetoric of tariff hike against China, it has become more obvious and discernable that the Washington plot to disrupt international trade and wider economic intercourse is to contain and constrain China’s development while surreptitiously lining out countries in the world for the same purpose.
The structural disequilibrium at the heart of U.S international trade disadvantage cannot be resolved by Washington’s intimidation of the international community but by radical domestic reforms most likely to hurt the U.S oligarchs but will have ramifications for economic recovery and broader and shared prosperity for the American people in general.
However, amidst what appears like the proverbial breaking of an egg, a sumptuous omelette is appearing on the horizon in the shape and form of new opportunities for China and Africa and particularly Nigeria to raise the bar in economic and trade cooperation.
At a recent media briefing, the Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria Mr. Yu Dunhai said “China and Nigeria are key trade partners, with bilateral trade consistently reaching about 22 billion U.S dollars, among the highest in Africa”. The envoy further state that “following last year’s agreement on Nigeria’s peanut export to China, China remains open to further expanding imports of Nigerian goods signaling broad prospects for future economic cooperation”.
The prospect of expanding imports of Nigerian commodities into China’s huge market has considerable significance for Nigeria’s economic diversifications, beyond its current structure of mono-cultural economy where a single item accounts for over 90% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings. And the single item in question, crude oil is associated with volatilities in the international market, with the country in no position to guarantee its stable demands and prices.
The debate for economic diversification as a deliberate strategy to leverage the country’s other resources has been in the mainstream of Nigeria’s economic discourse and the opportunity of China, with consistent offer of concessional access to its huge market responded in practical and tangible manner to the Nigeria’s long standing policy incubation of economic diversification. Since the summit of the heads of State and government of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in 2018 in Beijing, China established the permanent mechanism, the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo, held every two years since then to expose to the Chinese market, Africa’s produce and services and vigorous exchanges at the Expo have so far, shown that the African products have huge potentials in the Chinese market.
At the 8th Ministerial conference of FOCAC in 2021 held in Senegal via a video link because of the prevalent COVID-19 pandemicthen, the Chinese leader, President Xi Jinping offered that with a view to advance trade promotion, “China will open “green lanes” for Africa agricultural exports to China, speed up the inspection and quarantine procedures and further increase the scope of products enjoying zero-tariff treatment for thee least developing countries having diplomatic relations with China, in a bid to reach 300 billion U.S Dollars in total imports from Africa.”
While China has remained Nigeria’s source of reliable foreign direct investments, Nigeria has not yet explored in a deliberate and systematic way, China’s large domestic market, which can provide a niche for Nigeria’s non-oil export and consequently accelerate the country’s economic diversification.
As the Chinese Ambassador to Niger noted in his recent media briefing, “China is a reliable partner for Africa – trustworthy, mature and steadfast. China’s development and commitment to high level openness will bring much-needed stability to an increasingly uncertain world”. China has the relevant and reliable policy instrument that ensure an economic space of predictability and certainty on which partners can anchor a credible stream of interaction and cooperation, without fearing somersault and disruptions.
Nigeria can cultivate a policy to encourage domestic expansion of outputs with an eye on a fairly stable international market outlook, thereby consolidating on the structural reforms of economic diversifications. The current economic challenges in Nigeria consisting of foreign exchange fluctuations can be addressed through achieving stability both in the short and long term by concerted export drive and China has offered some low hanging fruits through concessional access to her huge market of Nigeria’s agricultural products and commodities.
While China to a considerable extent provides the external guarantees for Nigeria’s long overdue economic diversification, the government will have to create the enabling environment through relevant policy instrument, to incentivize the target sectors in the drive for domestic diversification of the economy.
On the trade disruptions and wider turmoil of the global economy instigated by President Trump, China will ride out the storm and emerge not only stronger but with greater credibility and integrity as major country discharging her responsibility for global stability. With an unwavering support of her people, a vast market if 1.4 billion consumers and a comprehensive industrial value chain, China is already primed to absolve disruptive shocks, especially one that is politically motivated. Having contributed around 30% to global economic growth in the past several decades and a 5.4% growth in the first quarter of this year, the highest of any major economy in the world, the country’s economic fundamentals are firmly rooted and not likely to be shaken by a perfunctory trade and tariff drama performed for its mere effects. Already China’s firm push back at Washington’s tariff outrage has mitigated its excesses and won for many countries targeted, a 90 days’ reprieve to negotiate more favorable terms with Washington.
China has repeated that her door is open as far as the framework for engagement is devoid of intimidation and bullying. With American industries operating offshore in China and other Asian countries for reasons of lower cost of production, lower taxes and less stringent regulation faces bankruptcy for reasons of potential dry-up of the American market because of the tariff walls Mr. Trump is erecting, it is likely that common sense will prevail in the White House enabling a pragmatic outreach to other countries for amicable resolution of what the U.S claimed is her disadvantageous trade with the rest of the world.
The declaration of the Economic and trade partnership providing concessional access to the Chinese huge market to all of African countries is not only a demonstration of good will but a bold statement reaffirming Beijing political integrity as a major power with a sense of greater responsibility and reliabilty , especially in moments of uncertainty and even turmoil.
Mr. Onunaiju, is director of an Abuja-based Think Tank
