Opinion
President Xi’s Diplomatic Lessons for Trump and Thucydides-Trap Theoretical Approach
By Prof Sheriff Ghali Ibrahim
The world has seen a change in diplomatic presentation and engagement from Trump’s embarrasing moments with world leaders such as Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, Angela Merkel of Germany and King Abdallah of Jordan among others. Trump triggered an unhealthy debate with Zelensky on mineral rights, aid and handling of the war; ambushed Ramaphosa with a controversial video regarding unproven claims of “white genocide” in South Africa; attacked Macron by brushing dandruff off the French leader’s jacket and policy contradictions over Ukraine loans: embarrased Merkel by ignoring requests from photographers and Merkel herself to shake her hand.
The lessons of diplomacy are best learnt in the class room of President Xi, where world leaders frequent Beijing for such hilarious lessons from the Core of the Communist Party, which they hitherto rejected and described as authoritarian, but today, they embrace comunism with Chinese characteristics as the solution to global challenges, and a place for political, economic and socio-cultural leaning.
When President Xi, calmly, gently, confidently and intellectually addressed Donald Trump during the summit, what manifested was unmitigated diplomatic prowesse, leadership, intelligence, warmth and direct objectivised submissions. There were no dramatic gesticulations, bullying or disrespect to the personality of Trump, but Trump was overwhelmed by what he saw and met and could not help but revealed what was hidden in his mind by constantly uttering “China is Great,” watching Xi in an open-mouthed bewilderment.
President Xi put-forward the concept of “constructive strategic stability” to guide bilateral relations. This framework prioritizes cooperation, managing differences, and keeping measured competition from spiraling into conflict. However, Xi warned that Taiwan is a “red line” that could derail this stability.
Constructive Strategic Stability aims to establish rules for managing long-term strategic competition without allowing rivalries to escalate into direct confrontation or hostility. Xi emphasized that the two nations should act as partners rather than rivals.
Manageable Differences: The two leaders agreed that constant, expectable communication is necessary to handle disagreements in areas like trade and advanced technology.
The Taiwan Warning: Xi explicitly warned Trump that the Taiwan issue is the “most important and sensitive” part of China-U.S. relations. He noted that “Taiwan’s independence” and peace are irreconcilable, and mishandling the issue could draw the countries into clashes or conflict.
President Xi Jinping views the “Thucydides Trap”—the historical theory that war is inevitable when a rising power challenges an established one—not as an inescapable prophecy, but as a threat that both the United States and China must proactively avoid through a “new model of major-country relations”. This theory was developed by Graham from Havard university using the lens of the Greek Writer Thucydides. It has been estimated that there have been about 16 confrontations from this theoretical analogy since 500 years ago, only four were avoided, but all came to reality. The major expectation of future super-power conflict has ben China-U.S. conflict, which President Xi pointed out that, that is not necessary, with a new model of major-country relations.
It is now left for the United States to sincerely and honestly accept and implement the constructive strategic stability paradigm as China’s new diplomatic posture with the United States in the new era or choose to go by the Thucydides-Trap, which will accelerate the complete collapse of the United States as an existing empire.
In conclusion, the major lessons from Xi’s diplomatic lessons for Trump can be drawn from managing differences, healthy competition, strategic cooperation and avoidance of war. These lessons are to be guided by mutual communication, interdependence and respect to territorial integrity and sovereignty. Taiwan as a point of departure, cannot be negotiated and cannot be compromised. The major and final lessons are: cordiality, joviality and respect to diplomatic guests, not harshness, embarrasment and rejection as witnessed by many leaders in their visit to the White House under Trump.
Prof Sheriff is the Provost, Anti-Corruption Academy of Nigeria and Head of Contemporary China-Africa Research
Opinion
Xi Story: When lush mountains become a measure of governance
In August 2005, sweltering heat hung over a hilly village in east China. Inside a modest meeting room, an air conditioner hummed against the summer heat as Xi Jinping, then chief of the Zhejiang provincial committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), met local officials during an inspection tour.
Yucun Village in northern Zhejiang had made a painful yet pivotal choice: shutting down three quarries and a cement plant that had long been its economic lifeline.
In the 1990s, the village had prospered on limestone mining and cement production, but at a visible cost: hillsides were carved open, streams had turned murky and dust constantly hung in the air.
The economic impact of the closures was immediate. As incomes fell, growing discontent from the villagers placed mounting pressure on local officials.
When village Party chief Bao Xinmin reported the decision to Xi, the atmosphere in the room was tense. At a time when economic development, mostly measured by GDP growth, dominated official performance evaluation, abandoning lucrative industries was no easy choice.
Sensing the concern among the village officials, Xi asked why the quarries and the plant were shut down.
Pollution had become unbearable, Bao replied. “Years of mining and lime production left our village constantly covered in dust and thick smoke. It felt as if we were living in a toxic cage,” he said.
“Your decision is a wise choice!” Xi said, to everyone’s surprise.
“Every choice comes with gains and losses. When you can’t have it both ways, you need to know what to give up and what to choose. Development can take many forms, but it must be sustainable,” he said.
It was then that Xi put forward what would later become one of China’s best-known environmental concepts: “Lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets.”
Such thinking emerged from Zhejiang’s own realities. As one of China’s coastal provinces, Zhejiang was among the early movers in dealing with the tension between short-term economic gain and long-term ecological sustainability.
Xi’s tenure in Zhejiang from October 2002 to March 2007 was also a pivotal transformation period for the province’s development. While Zhejiang maintained steady economic progress, the problems stemming from its extensive growth model were looming large, in the form of tight land supply, worsening pollution and severe power shortages resulting from over-dependence on resource-driven investment.
At the height of the energy crunch, in some rural parts of Zhejiang, power was only available half the week. More than 50 percent of enterprises had experienced power outages. Many businesses, and even ordinary households, had to install their own generators.
After a series of field visits, Xi in 2003 unveiled a development blueprint in which ecological advancement was given a prominent place.
This overarching plan guided local cadres to recalibrate their views on governance achievement.
Sun Wenyou, then Party secretary of the city of Huzhou, recalled that Xi stressed on multiple occasions that short-term economic gains must never come at the expense of the environment, nor should officials seek vanity projects to polish their performance records.
Li Jinming, a former deputy Party chief of Zhejiang, recalled that Xi cautioned against overemphasis on GDP growth as the sole criterion for officials’ performance, stressing that what mattered most to ordinary people was tangible improvements in livelihoods.
Improving the ecological environment, Xi argued, is a form of developing productive forces.
This idea found its clear expression in Yucun. The former cement plant site was turned into green fields. As environmental conditions improved, villagers began opening guesthouses and farm stays.
What began in Yucun has come to reflect a provincial and then national shift in development philosophy, embedding green principles into the pursuit and evaluation of development.
After assuming the top office as the general secretary of the CPC Central Committee in 2012, Xi made ecological civilization a national priority. China launched a series of far-reaching environmental initiatives, expanding both the scope of regulation and the capacity to enforce it.
Environmental performance has also become an important criterion in cadre evaluation. Central government environmental inspections have prodded local officials to place greater emphasis on ecological protection.
After years of smog and severe air pollution, blue skies are now the new normal in China. In 2025, 89.3 percent of the days in the year recorded good or excellent air quality, the highest level ever recorded.
By championing green development, China has also recorded the world’s fastest growth in forest resources, taken a global lead in renewable energy development, and achieved one of the fastest reductions in energy intensity worldwide.
To underpin such progress, China’s top legislature in March this year adopted a landmark Ecological and Environmental Code, laying a solid legal cornerstone for pursuing Chinese modernization with human-nature harmony as one of its distinctive features.
When Xi revisited Yucun in 2020, he found a village transformed, with verdant hills, crystal-clear streams, tidy roads and rows of modern homes. Ecotourism projects were flourishing, and villagers were earning decent incomes.
Xi looked back on the village’s green transformation and said its experience had proved that green development was the right path.
“Once the right direction has been chosen, it should be pursued with determination,” Xi said.
Opinion
Political Economy of Nigeria’s Economic Growth and the Power Sector
By Adefolarin A. Olamiekan
There is no gainsaying the current macroeconomic realities confronting Nigeria, which have tempered the high expectations for economic growth in 2026.Ordinarily, economic growth should translate into improved living standards, price stability, job creation, reduced import dependence, increased productivity, and broader developmental outcomes. However, the Nigerian experience remains markedly different, as many households continue to grapple with rising living costs and persistent economic hardship.
Despite these challenges, several projections indicate that Nigeria’s economy may maintain an upward growth trajectory in 2026, even as the country enters a period of intense political activity ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The economy recorded a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, driven largely by the resilience of the non-oil sector. The services sector remained the principal driver of growth, while agriculture recorded a recovery, growing by 3.15 per cent after previous setbacks that many analysts attributed to widespread insecurity.
Nevertheless, preparations for the 2027 elections could affect economic activity by dampening investor confidence and slowing trade, investment, and other productive ventures.
Global developments also remain a factor. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving the United States and Iran, have contributed to volatility in crude oil prices, increased energy costs, and disruptions in fertilizer supply chains. While these developments pose challenges, they may also boost government revenues through higher oil earnings.
Recent economic reforms introduced by the Federal Government are expected to yield stronger results in the coming years. These efforts have been complemented by the banking sector recapitalisation programme, while reforms in the insurance and capital market sectors continue.
Several sectors possess significant growth potential, including banking, capital markets, oil and gas, telecommunications, real estate, construction, agriculture, manufacturing, mining, the creative industry, and international trade.
Diaspora remittances also continue to play an important role in strengthening Nigeria’s foreign exchange position. Additionally, the implementation of the 2026 national budget, particularly through capital expenditure and infrastructure investments, is expected to stimulate economic activity and support growth.
Political campaign spending ahead of the 2027 elections may also provide short-term economic stimulus in sectors such as printing, advertising, transportation, hospitality, event management, and the production of campaign materials.
Taken together, these factors will influence the direction of Nigeria’s economic growth and development in 2026 and beyond. A critical element in this equation is electricity. The relationship between economic growth and a reliable power supply cannot be overstated. Stable electricity is the foundation of industrialisation and has been a key driver of economic advancement in many developed countries.Unfortunately, Nigeria continues to face persistent power sector challenges.
These difficulties are not recent but reflect decades of inadequate investment, policy inconsistencies, and a failure to fully recognise the strategic importance of reliable electricity to economic development. Despite an installed generation capacity of approximately 16,000 megawatts and access to hydro, thermal, and renewable energy sources, electricity supply remains insufficient to meet national demand.
For Nigeria to achieve sustainable economic growth and industrial development, significant improvements are required across the entire electricity value chain, including generation, transmission, and distribution.The ongoing reforms in the power sector are therefore critical.
Greater liberalisation, increased private-sector participation, improved financing, and stronger technical and managerial capacity are essential to unlocking the sector’s potential.The reforms must also address long-standing issues such as cost-reflective tariffs, metering deficits, and operational inefficiencies that continue to affect consumers and businesses.
From a political economy perspective, the success of Nigeria’s growth ambitions will depend largely on the ability of policymakers to sustain reforms, strengthen institutions, improve infrastructure, and deliver a reliable electricity supply capable of supporting industrialisation, productivity, and long-term competitiveness.
Adefolarin A. Olamiekan
Political Economist
Host, The Market Report
ADBN Television, Abuja
Opinion
The Shifting Power Dynamics in the 21st Century: How Economic and Political Forces are Reshaping the Global Order
By Solomon Iliya Jeffrey
The global landscape is undergoing one of the most significant transformations in modern history. Economic power is no longer concentrated in a few traditional centers, and political influence isincreasingly shaped by emerging nations, technological innovation, and shifting alliances. The 21st century is not defined by stability, but by transition, a gradual reordering of how power isdistributed and exercised across the world.
For much of the 20th century, global dominance was largely held by Western economies,particularly the United States and its European allies. Their influence extended beyond economics into global governance, security, and cultural leadership. However, the rise of new economic powers has begun to challenge this long-standing structure.
Countries such as China, India, and Brazil have expanded their economic reach, driven byindustrial growth, population advantages, and strategic investments. This shift has contributed to a more multipolar world, where influence is shared among several key players rather than controlled by a single dominant force.At the heart of this transformation is globalization.
For decades, interconnected trade systems allowed goods, services, and capital to move across borders with increasing ease. This created opportunities for growth, lifted millions out of poverty, and integrated economies in unprecedented ways. Yet, globalization has also revealed its weaknesses.
Economic inequality, both within and between nations, has become more pronounced. Whilesome countries and individuals have benefited greatly, others have been left behind. Thisimbalance has fueled political dissatisfaction, leading to the rise of nationalism and protectionist policies in various parts of the world.
Trade tensions have become a defining feature of modern global politics. Nations are no longer justcompeting economically, they are competing strategically. Control over resources, supply chains, and technological dominance has become a central concern. Industries such as artificial intelligence, energy, and telecommunications are now deeply tied to national security.
Technology, in particular, has emerged as a powerful tool of both economic growth and political influence. Countries that lead in innovation are better positioned to shape global standards and control critical infrastructure. As a result, digital competition has become as important as traditional economic competition.
Another major factor shaping the global order is geopolitics. Alliances are evolving, and newpartnerships are being formed based on shared interests rather than historical ties. Regionalorganizations and economic blocs are playing a greater role in influencing global decisions,reflecting the growing importance of collective power.
At the same time, global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and financial instability require cooperation. No single nation can address these issues alone. This creates a complex dynamic: while countries compete for influence, they must also collaborate to manage shared risks.
For developing nations, this changing environment presents both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, they can leverage new partnerships, attract investment, and participate more actively in global trade. On the other hand, they must navigate external pressures, avoid excessive dependence, and build resilient domestic economies.
Africa, for instance, is increasingly recognized as a region of strategic importance due to itspopulation growth, natural resources, and economic potential. Countries within the continent have the opportunity to shape their own development paths by strengthening regional integration, improving governance, and investing in human capital.
The future of the global economy will likely be defined by adaptability. Nations that can respond to change, by embracing innovation, diversifying their economies, and maintaining politicalstability, will be better positioned to thrive. Those that resist change risk being left behind.Ultimately, the world is moving toward a more interconnected yet competitive system.
Power is no longer static; it is constantly being negotiated through economic performance, political strategy, and technological advancement.The emerging global order is not about who dominates, but about who adapts best.
Solomon Iliya Jeffrey is a serving corper at Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution and can bereached via solomonjefferey24@gmail.com
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